Tuesday, May 17, 2005

NFL '05-'06 Predictions (AFC South)

And today we break down the AFC South; a division that has been, and should be again, an extremely competitive one. This division has the best collection of proven and potential super stardom at the all-important QB position. Last year Indianapolis almost ran away with the division, but two young surprising teams in Houston and Jacksonville remained a thorn in their sides the whole season. With Steve McNair being hurt most of the season, the Titans had to rely on first year starter at tailback, Chris Brown, who stayed injured almost as much as McNair, but was effective whenever he was there. The NFL isn’t used to seeing the Titans in such a sub par position. But that was last year. Now it’s time to discuss the ’05-’06 season.

Houston Texans – Dom Capers is a hell of a coach. Back in the late 90’s he took the expansion Carolina Panthers to the NFC championship only to be dismissed in favor of former 49er coach George Seifert a couple of years later. Now he’s taken the expansion Texans and made them serious threats for playoff contention. Leading the way on the field is future all-pro David Carr. Coming out of college he got a lot of fan fare. Over the last two years, he has lived up to the hype by being a consistent and tough QB. Two years ago, his rookie season, he was sacked more times than any other QB in the league. Last year, his O-line improved and he made the necessary adjustments to get rid of the ball quicker, and he looked like an all-pro QB. In the process, he made the city of Houston fall in love with him. Now with the pressure of carrying a franchise to the next level, if Carr can pull it off, he will be revered in the city like Warren Moon.
Andre Johnson was a man among boys at the wide receiver position. I look for him to be a modern day version of Ernest Givens (that’s for all you Houston Oilers’ fans). If Jabar Gaffney could ever stay healthy, he would help the wide receiving corps a great deal.
Running back Dominick Davis is another one that needs to remain healthy if Houston has any chance at all winning. Davis turned head two years ago when he stepped in to replace an injured Stacy Mack . Since then, Davis hasn’t really been 100% healthy. However, if the Texans plan on making that next step, he will have to be.
On defense, the Texans are solid up front. They play with a bunch of no-names that make big plays. They added a possible impact player when they drafted DT Travis Johnson from Florida St. He should make splashes in 2-3 seasons. One big hole that they had to fill right away, though, was the void that was left when All-Pro linebacker Jamie Sharper signed with the Seattle Seahawks in the off-season. For that, they brought in Marlon Greenwood from Miami. He and Sharper are cut from the same cloth, so the Texans shouldn’t take a step backward.
They have no questions at at least one corner, however. Last season, (then) rookie cornerback Daunte Robinson made his mark as the next great shut down corner in the league. He’ll be matched up against the opposing team’s best receiver, and will be looking to make them null & void. They lost Aaron Glenn to free agency, but the brought in Lewis Sanders from Cleveland and drafted two more corners.
Whatever the case, if Houston is going to take that next step, it all rests on the shoulders of David Carr. That offensive line will have to protect him and Dominick Davis will have to give him some run support to keep opposing defenses honest, but ultimately, this team’s success will be determined by David Carr’s play. If he goes down, that’s it for them. You can go ahead and write it off until next season.
Record: 9-7 if Carr is healthy……3-13 if he’s not.

Indianapolis Colts – I’ll go ahead and put it out there. I’m biased toward this team. So you’ll have to forgive me if any of the following comments sound personal. The Colts are another team that needs to take that next step this season. For all that Peyton Manning accomplished last season with breaking Marino’s record, I guarantee you that he’d give it all back just to beat New England. But Peyton is a gamer. He’ll be back better than ever this season. At his disposal, he’ll have All-world receiver Marvin Harrison and the two men who should give Marvin half of their checks for allowing them to have one-on-one coverage while he’s double and triple teamed, Brandon Stokley and Reggie Wayne. In the backfield, is my main man, All-world running back, Edgerrin James. Edge has made it clear that he wants to stay in Indy. But what did Bill Polian do? He gave all of his money to Brandon Stokley. He did that because Manning and Stokley are friends back from their high school days. Manning is the one who asked management to pick him up out of free agency. So all James has done is gain 1500 yards each of his first two years in the league, bounce back from a normally career-ending injury only to gain 1200 yards the season after that, and protect Manning from blitzing linebackers by blocking and releasing into the flats and becoming a receiving threat. What more do you want? Hasn’t this man earned that money? Pay him what he’s worth already!!! Manning has said that they could take money from HIM to pay Edgerrin, because he wants him there. But Colts’ management won’t budge. This isn’t unforeseen. Jerry Rice took a serious pay cut during the ‘94-‘95 season in order for the 49ers to sign Deion Sanders. AND THEY ENDED UP WINNING THE SUPER BOWL!!!!
But enough about contract disputes. Let’s talk football. Nothing needs to be said about the Colts offense. It speaks for itself. With the exception of Teddy Rupskin (NOT Bill Belicek), nobody can stop it. Some notable offseason moves, though, include the departure of oft-injured TE Marcus Pollard who bolted for Detroit along with LG Rick DeMulling. Also, trying to cover their own asses, the Colts drafted RB Anthony Davis from Wisconsin.
Defense, however, is where the Colts get criticized a lot though. This is ironic seeing as how Tony Dungy’s staple has been defense over the years. They went almost totally for defense in the draft, bringing in 6’ corner Marlin Jackson from Michigan along with another corner, a free safety, and two defensive ends. But there will still be skeptics as to why the Colts STILL won’t be better on defense. So here’s some food for thought:
1) The Colts’ offense scores TONS of points, so the defense has everything it needs: a decent secondary (which they upgraded in the draft, by the way) to stop the teams who desperately try to keep pace with Peyton & Co. and two excellent pass rushing defensive ends in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
2) The Colts’ offense scores TONS of points….quickly. So the defense will often go out there fatigued. They’ve just gotten off the field, and while they’re jubilant that their offense has produced points, they have to hang their heads that they did it so quickly and didn’t give them a chance to catch their collective breath.
3) Finally, the Colts’ offense scores a TON of points….frequently. So opposing coaches’ game plans are almost always the same: run the football, eat up clock, and keep that offense off the field. This is another reason why the defense is always so fatigued. If they see this same strategy week after week, their bodies will start to wear down in the latter part of the season.
Either way, if Manning stays healthy, which I’m sure he will, the Colts will win the divison.
Record: 14-2 Best case scenario….11-5 Worst case scenario

Jacksonville Jaguars – Jack Del Rio made his mark as an NFL coach last season, and Byron Leftwich was brilliant. The Jags won a lot of close games, and for the first time in forever, Fred Taylor was healthy. There’s an old saying that “you have to be a good team in order to win the close games.” Well, Jacksonville won too many close games, which leads me to believe that last season was a fluke. Even though they didn’t make the playoffs, they made a lot of noise.
Well Jack Del Rio knows that a solid defense will get him where he wants to be. So he went out and beefed up his defensive line. He brought in DT Tony Williams from Cincinnati, DE Reggie Hayward from Denver, and DE Marcellus Wiley from Dallas. And after re-signing LB Akin Ayodele, he went out and brought in LB Nate Wayne from Philly.
Del Rio looked like a genius until draft day came. They used their first pick to draft QB/WR/TE Matt Jones from Arkansas. Now being in Alabama, I watched Jones torture us and other SEC schools for the past 3 years. (He was also a decent basketball player). He’s 6’6” and 240lbs. And the Jags want to use him at receiver because he consistently ran sub 4.4 40’s at the combines. The only problem is that Matt is “deceptively” fast. More like Randall Cunningham circa 1989 rather than Darrell Green around the same time. He uses his long legs to take very long strides. This means that if he’s in the open field he could do some damage. But anything 10 yards or shorter will be a disaster. Then if they use him at TE, he’s not physical enough to tangle with NFL linebackers in the run blocking game. No need to use him at QB because you already have a franchise player in Byron Leftwich. So if this all works out for the Jags, they’ll look like Bill Walsh in his prime. But if not…
Record: 8-8 either way. Best case or worst case. They’re no better than a .500 team.

Tennessee Titans – This season is going to be extremely painful to watch if you’re a Titans fan. With Steve McNair contemplating retirement, and damn near EVERYBODY on the roster gone, this is the price that you pay for success (see San Francisco and Dallas). McNair will be back, as will be his formidable backup Billy Volek. Chris Brown will be starting in the backfield once again, but just look at what they’ve lost. WR Eddie Berlin (Chicago), DE Kevin Carter (Miami), CB Andre Dyson (Seattle), DE Carlos Hall (KC), FB Robert Holcombe (Free Agent), OT Matt Martin (Tampa Bay), WR Derrick Mason (Baltimore), TE Shad Meier (New Orleans), OT Fred Miller (Chicago), K Joe Nedney (Free Agent), CB Samari Rolle (Baltimore….damn Baltimore’s gonna be good), and RB Antoine Smith (New Orleans).
Jeff Fisher’s trying his best to hold this ship together but it’s sinking fast. They brought in Pac Man Jones to replace Samari Rolle, but that’s about all they’ve done. They drafted 3 good college receivers, a tight end, another cornerback, 3 offensive tackles, a running back, and a free safety.
And the ONE move that they’ve made in free agency? They signed kicker Ola Kimrin from the Redskins. Titans’ fans, you have my deepest sympathies.
Record: 7-9 VERY best case scenario (i.e. McNair staying healthy) … 3-13 if all goes as planned.

So that’s it for the AFC South. Let’s recap: Indy will win it. Houston will compete. Jacksonville is a HUGE question mark and Tennesseee…whew. So we’ll be back tomorrow to wrap up the AFC when we go out west to talk about Randy Moss’s new home, QB controversies in San Diego, a new emphasis on defense in KC, and a LOADED backfield in Denver.

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