NFL '05-'06 Predictions (AFC West)

Today is the last day that we talk about the AFC. We’ll recap after we’re done with this division. Today’s topic of discussion is that wild wild AFC West. Last year it didn’t really have much to offer except San Diego’s Cinderella season. This year looks to be even wilder in the AFC West, so let’s jump right into it, starting in the Mile High City.
Denver Broncos – This team has been an enigma every year since John Elway retired. On paper they look to be one of the best teams in the league, but they always end up limping into the playoffs. This year will be no exception, and their chances of making the playoffs are iffy. Here’s why. Reason number one is Jake Plummer. I love Jake as a player. I admire his tenacity, toughness, and his will to win. However, Jake tends to make a LOT of mistakes when it matters the most. That’s been the one thing that’s plagued him for his entire NFL career. If he can avoid those mistakes this season, it will give his team a better chance of making the playoffs.
Good play from Plummer won’t be the only thing that they need. They’ll need some great play from at least ONE of the thousands of “marquee” running backs that they have. Here’s the list: Quentin Griffin (who started brilliantly last year, but got injured. He also did an excellent job of backing up Clinton Portis before he left), Tatum Bell (who they drafted last year. He got hurt early in the season and worked his way back up and really impressed coaches by being willing to play on special teams. He ended up being excellent there, and Mike Shanahan feels like he owes him a shot at the RB position.), Mike Anderson (the first back after Terrell Davis to come in and put up mammoth numbers. He’s back from a serious injury and looks to take back his starting spot at HB), Ron Dayne (former Heisman Trophy winner who was a bust in New York; looking for a chance at redemption), Santonio Beard (3rd year man from Alabama. Looking to make his mark in the league), and the man that Denver is taking a gamble on, Maurice Clarett. They’re so stacked that they shipped Rueben Droughns (last season’s thousand yard back) to Cleveland.
Now it’s all good and dandy to have all of these running backs, but let’s look at something here. Conventional thought leads us to believe that any running back can have a breakout season in Denver’s system. But has one ever given thought to the fact that maybe Shanahan has to have all of these top backs, because his system is a high risk/high reward kind of deal, with the high risk being serious injury. True enough backs in this system always put up big numbers, but by season’s end, Denver is always down to the guy who was 3rd or 4th on their depth chart when the season started. That’ll be something to keep an eye on this season.
Denver’s offensive line is always stellar, so that will really be nothing to worry about.
Plummer will still have the same targets that he had last year. Rod Smith and Ashlie Lelie will be back. And Denver re-signed budding superstar Tight End Jeb Putzier. And as late as today, there are wide spread reports that Shanahan wants to bring in the most prolific receiver in the history of the game, Jerry Rice.
On defense, is where Denver will have problems, and it will ultimately cost them a shot at making the playoffs. Let’s look at the positives of this defense before we start bashing them (and believe me, there’s plenty of bashing to do). They still have the premier shut down corner in the league in Champ Bailey. He’ll have one side of the field on lock, but that other side is a question mark. They lost Kelly Herndon to Seattle, so they went and drafted three corners with their first three picks in the draft. The brought back Ian Gold from Tampa to play Linebacker alongside John Mobley and company. Now we get to Denver’s problem area: the defensive line. This all goes back to Cleveland, so pay close attention. Over the last five years or so, the Browns have used their first pick in the draft to draft defensive linemen on at least 3 occasions. Over the last five years, the Browns have been dead last in the league at stopping the run on at least three occasions. This all ties in together so follow me. When Corey Dillon was still in Cincinnati, he broke the all-time single game rushing record of 275 yards AGAINST DENVER. The next season, Jamal Lewis said, “I’m gonna go out and break Corey Dillon’s record AGAINST CLEVELAND.” And he did. In an effort to make cap room, Cleveland let go of most of those defensive linemen. And guess who picked EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM up off of waivers. You guessed it: The Denver Broncos. Look for LaDanian Tomlinson to break the rushing record in his first game against the Broncos this year. Then Priest Holmes will break THAT record when KC plays them. LT will break Holmes’ record the next time San Diego plays Denver, and Holmes will reclaim the title the next time that KC plays Denver. Hell, LaMont Jordan might get in on the action too. I guess the one good thing about this is that all of Denver’s linebackers will go to the Pro Bowl. They’ll all have well over 100 tackles once these running backs break through that paper thin defensive line.
Making these moves shows me that Denver isn’t committed to stopping the run. If you can’t stop the run, you won’t win many games. If you don’t win many games, you find yourself in Cleveland’s position as a perennial top 5 picker in the NFL draft. Karma’s a bitch ain’t it? Nearly 20 years ago, the Broncos kept the Browns from reaching their pinnacle on more than one occasion. Now Cleveland’s back and dumping all of their city’s garbage on Denver.
Record: 6-10 because they won’t stop the run in a division where at least two of the running backs are annual locks for the Pro Bowl. (One other thing to keep in mind too: as close as Mike Shanahan and the Denver owner may be, this season HAS to be a statement season for Shanahan. He has never done anything significant in his career without John Elway. He’ll have to show the world that he’s the genius that NFL “experts” made him out to be, and not Elway’s jock rider.)

Kansas City – Offense has never been much of a problem with this team. Since Dick Vermeil has been in Kansas City, they’ve posted some huge offensive numbers despite their best offensive player, Tony Gonzalez, having a mid-life crisis and wanting to play in the NBA, Priest Holmes being injured, Larry Johnson crying like a beeeeeotch, and not having a real dominant threat at wide receiver. All of those things will be back in tact this season.
The one thing that KC has never really been able to do is stop the other team from scoring. Former KC head coach and current Defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham will NOT have that problem to worry about any more. Ryan Sims will break out of his career long slump and blossom into the man-beast that he is. Before, he probably worried too much about being exposed because he didn’t really have anyone behind him. Now he can take more chances because the Chiefs used their first pick to draft MLB Derrick Johnson out of Texas. Ladies & gentlemen, this is another “you heard it here first”. This guy will be a MONSTER in the middle. He’s 6’3” and 234 lbs. with great sideline to sideline speed. The Chiefs have him to go along with Shaun Barber (who carried that defense last season), and they also brought in Kendrell Bell from Pittsburgh. Bell has the potential to be a Kevin Greene type backer, but he has to stay healthy. At the safety position, Jerome Woods is already a pro-bowl caliber safety, and the Chiefs have now brought in veteran safety Sammy Knight to play alongside him. They’ve also freed up some cap room so they can make a serious push for Ty Law, and all signs point to Law being in Kansas City for the ’05-’06 season.
One facet of the NFL that’s often overlooked and underrated is special teams. This year, the Chiefs will have one of the best special teams units in the league. Dante Hall will still be there giving his offense a short field to work on. And KC drafted punter Dustin Colquitt from Tennessee. Colquitt’s punting is flawless. I watched him for four years at Tennessee and he probably had one bad kick during his tenure. He will pin opposing offenses inside the 20 every time he steps onto the field. If this KC defense does indeed live up to its billing, some of that credit is going to have to go to Dustin Colquitt.
With all that being said, KC makes a strong push to win the division, but it will go down to the wire.
Record: 10-6. They’ll be a solid well-coached football team, who won’t slip like they did last year. And I didn’t mention him in the analysis, but Trent Green MUST stay healthy. 8-8 if they lose a key component.

Oakland Raiders - Don't be surprised if Kerry Collins ends up looking like Dan Marino this year. He has the best deep threat in the NFL at his disposal in Randy Moss. He has a receiver who's on the verge of becoming a superstar in Jerry Porter, and he has a good young receiver in Ronald Curry. He can't go wrong. If his offensive line can protect him, Collins will be a lock for the Pro Bowl. Jerry Porter will also put up big numbers in this offense as Moss will be faced will several double teams per game, which will leave Porter one on one most of the time.
Another beneficiary of Moss's presence will be running back LaMont Jordan. Any time Randy Moss is on the field, you'd be an idiot to stack 8 men in the box. So Jordan will be able to breathe a little easier with that kind of threat on the perimeters.
The defense added by subtracting when they shipped Philip Buchanan to Houston. They used their first two picks to draft two corners to possibly replace him. Warren Sapp will still anchor the defensive line, but to help him out, they brought in pass rush specialist Derrick Burgess from Philly. Their linebackers are young, and will be fair to middling at best. Their defenseive backfield will be led, once again, by Heisman trophy winner Charles Woodson.
To make a long story short, I think the Raiders will seriously contend for the AFC West this year. Both the Chiefs and Raiders will have extremely explosive offense. However, I think Kansas City's defense (on paper, at least) matches up better against Oakland's offense rather than vice versa. The rights to this division will go down to the wire.
Record: 9-7 either way

San Diego Chargers - Last year was a dream season for the Chargers. Drew Brees was a man on fire. You'd be surprised what competition will force you to do. LaDanian Tomlinson did his usual thing, and Antonio Gates emerged as maybe a top 3 tight ends in the league (along with Tony Gonzalez and Alge Crumpler). This team looks good, but if history has taught us anything, it taught us that Marty Schottenheimer's teams usually max out at this point. Remember all of those great teams in Kansas City with Derrick Thomas (God Bless Your Soul..ROLL TIDE!!! ), Neil Smith, Marcus Allen, Christian Okoye, Steve DeBerg, Joe Montana, J.J. Birden, and they still never got deep into the playoffs.
San Diego will be the most under achieving team in the league this season. They will have all of the tools to go deep into the playoffs, but they won't make it. Tomlinson will rush for 1,300 yards and receive for 500. Gates will have 75 catches. But the team will not make it to the playoffs.
There are some good things to look at from this team though. They drafted a wide receiver from N. Colorado by the name of Vincent Jackson. This kid is 6'5" 241lbs.!!! He's gonna be a MONSTER on the perimeter.
On defense, they used their first round pick to choose Shawn Merriman from Maryland, but I just don't think he's exactly gonna be Junior Seau (hell, who is?!?!), but he'll be a solid NFL linebacker.
Again, to make a long story short, this team will be in several close games, but they won't make the playoffs.
Record: 7-9 either way.

So that's it for the AFC West as well as the AFC. Let's recap this division first. KC and Oakland will go down to the wire for the division championship. Denver will self-destruct because of the inability to stop the run, and San Diego will underachieve.

Now let's review what I've picked for the AFC Playoff lineup for this season.
1. Indianapolis (NFC South Champ); 2. Baltimore (AFC North Champs); 3. NY Jets (AFC East Champs) 4. Oakland/KC (AFC West Champs) 5. Cincinnati (Wildcard) 6. Houston (Wildcard)
AFC Offensive Rookie of the Year: Braylon Edwards / Ronnie Brown (co-recipients)
AFC Defensive Rookie of the Year: David Pollack
AFC Offensive Player of the Year: Peyton Manning
AFC Defensive Player of the Year: Ray Lewis
AFC Coach of the Year: Tony Dungy
AFC Most Improved Player: LaMont Jordan

So that's it for today. I'll be back with the NFC East on tomorrow.